{"id":563,"date":"2006-02-08T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2006-02-07T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/blog\/?p=563"},"modified":"2010-11-11T18:27:37","modified_gmt":"2010-11-11T10:27:37","slug":"%e5%a4%a9%e6%b0%a3%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e7%9a%84%e5%b1%80%e9%99%90%e6%80%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/%e5%a4%a9%e6%b0%a3%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e7%9a%84%e5%b1%80%e9%99%90%e6%80%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"

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<\/code><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

現今科技雖然先進，但在天氣預報方面仍然有很多局限性，引致預報不準確。  天氣預報主要靠電腦模擬大氣運動。大氣運動是物理現象，涉及複雜的數學運算，因此需要快速的超級電腦才能勝任。預報模式的解象度越精細，準確度越高，但所需的運算時間越多。如果24小時預報需要20小時才能計算出來就很不實際，因此我們要在模式解象度及運算時間取得平衡。 預報模式亦受初始條件（initial condition）影響，如果輸入的數據稍有偏差，得出的結果可以完全不同。這在陸地問題還不太大，但海洋或高山的氣象站不多，數據不足，只能進行插值（interpolation）評估，因此造成誤差。舉例，現時72小時颱風預報誤差仍超過300公里。這解釋為甚麼要派飛機飛進颱風中心量度數據，用來修正模式。 一般而言，冬季天氣較穩定，預報準確度較高，可以一星期前預報寒潮南下。踏入春季，尤其是春夏之間，天氣變化較大，預報的準確度較低，對於局部地區的突發天氣如暴雨更是束手無策。 除非有新科技改善電腦運算速度、預報模式模擬大氣運動的準確性及數據的質與量，天氣預報距離完美仍有一段很長的路。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=563"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/563\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":755,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/563\/revisions\/755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}