{"id":4026,"date":"2022-05-11T17:07:36","date_gmt":"2022-05-11T09:07:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/blog\/?p=4026"},"modified":"2023-04-08T06:35:56","modified_gmt":"2023-04-07T22:35:56","slug":"%e6%9a%b4%e9%9b%a8%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e5%85%ac%e9%96%8b%e7%9a%84%e7%a7%98%e5%af%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/%e6%9a%b4%e9%9b%a8%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1%e5%85%ac%e9%96%8b%e7%9a%84%e7%a7%98%e5%af%86\/","title":{"rendered":"\u66b4\u96e8\u9810\u5831\u516c\u958b\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u66b4\u96e8\u662f\u5f71\u97ff\u7bc4\u570d\u5c0f\u800c\u5f37\u5ea6\u8b8a\u5316\u5927\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002\u6578\u503c\u9810\u5831\u7531\u65bc\u53d7\u5230\u89e3\u50cf\u5ea6\u53ca\u89c0\u6e2c\u6578\u64da\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u6e96\u78ba\u9810\u5831\u5b9a\u9ede\u96e8\u91cf\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u5927\u7bc4\u570d\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u8868\u73fe\u4ea6\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6c23\u8c61\u6a5f\u69cb\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5929\u6587\u53f0\uff09\u53ea\u80fd\u5f9e\u81e8\u8fd1\u9810\u5831\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u96f7\u9054\u5716\u4e0a\u7684\u8ff4\u6ce2\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u9032\u884c\u77ed\u6642\u9810\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u5728 1999\u5e74\u63a8\u51fa\u5c0f\u6e26\u65cb\uff08SWIRLS\uff0cShort-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems\uff09\u9810\u5831\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7b97\u6cd5\u5206\u8fa8\u8ff4\u6ce2\u4e26\u9810\u6e2c\u52d5\u5411\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u66f4\u5617\u8a66\u9032\u884c\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u53ca\u4ee5\u6a5f\u5668\u5b78\u7fd2\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8655\u7406\u8ff4\u6ce2\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6587\u7ae0\u9644\u4e0a\u5929\u6587\u53f02017\u5e74\u65bc\u5b78\u8853\u671f\u520a\u767c\u8868\u7684\u6587\u737b\uff0c\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53ef\u7d30\u95b1\u3002\u9019\u88e1\u53ea\u7d66\u5c0e\u8b80\uff1a<\/p>\n

1. \u767c\u51fa\u96e8\u91cf\u9810\u8b66\u662f yes\/no \u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u96e8\u91cf\u662f\u5426\u9054\u6a19\u4e5f\u662f \u00a0yes\/no \u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5c31\u5f97\u51fa\u56db\u500b\u7d44\u5408\uff1a\u547d\u4e2d\uff08hit\uff09\u3001\u865b\u5831\uff08false alarm\uff09\u3001\u6f0f\u5831\uff08miss\uff09\u53ca\u6b63\u78ba\u4e0d\u9810\u8b66\uff08correct negative\uff09\u3002\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4e0a\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u591a\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u53bb\u5224\u65b7\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u662f \u5075\u6e2c\u7387\/\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\uff08POD\uff09\uff0c\u865b\u5831\u7387\uff08FAR\uff09\u53ca\u81e8\u754c\u6210\u529f\u6307\u6578\uff08CSI\uff09\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u53ca\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u898b\u9644\u57161\u3002<\/p>\n

2. \u8981\u63d0\u5347\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u9810\u5831\u6b21\u6578\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u6703\u589e\u52a0\u865b\u5831\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

3. \u547d\u4e2d\u7387\u8207\u865b\u5831\u7387\u96a8\u9810\u5831\u9577\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\/\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5169\u8005\u7684\u4ea4\u9ede\u5c31\u662f\u6253\u548c\u9ede\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u6548\u9810\u5831\u7684\u6700\u9577\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n

4. \u9644\u57162 \u662f\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u4e0d\u540c\u7b97\u6cd5\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0d\u540c\u96e8\u91cf\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u30020.5\u6beb\u7c73\u662f\u6709\u96e8\/\u7121\u96e8\uff0c5\u6beb\u7c73\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u964d\u96e8\uff0c30\u6beb\u7c73\u662f\u66b4\u96e8\uff08\u9ec3\u96e8\uff09\u3002\u800cTREC \u3001MOVA\u53caROVER\u5247\u662f\u7531\u820a\u81f3\u65b0\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u6709\u96e8\/\u7121\u96e8\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\uff0c1\u5c0f\u6642\u9810\u5831\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\u6709\u4e03\u6210\uff1b\u9810\u6e2c\u66b4\u96e8\uff0c1\u5c0f\u6642\u9810\u5831\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\u53ea\u6709\u56db\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n

5. \u7559\u610f\u865b\u5831\u7387\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u6709\u96e8\/\u7121\u96e8\uff0c1\u5c0f\u6642\u9810\u5831\u865b\u5831\u7387\u6709\u4e09\u6210\uff1b\u9810\u6e2c\u66b4\u96e8\uff0c1\u5c0f\u6642\u9810\u5831\u865b\u5831\u7387\u9054\u516d\u6210\u3002\u7559\u610f\u518d\u9ad8\u7684\u96e8\u91cf\uff08\u4f8b\u598250\/70\u6beb\u7c73\uff09\u6c92\u6709\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6562\u986f\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n

6. \u7531\u65bc\u66b4\u96e81\u5c0f\u6642\u9810\u5831\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\u5c0f\u65bc\u865b\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u6642\u9593\u5c11\u65bc1\u5c0f\u6642\u3002\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u4e5f\u66fe\u516c\u958b\u8868\u793a\u904e\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u516c\u773e\u751a\u96e3\u76f8\u4fe1\/\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u5728\u66b4\u96e8\u9810\u5831\u505a\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e5f\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u6587\u737b\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u7121\u53ef\u5426\u8a8d\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b642018\u5e74\u7372\u4e16\u754c\u6c23\u8c61\u7d44\u7e54\u6307\u5b9a\u70ba\u81e8\u8fd1\u9810\u5831\u5340\u57df\u5c08\u696d\u6c23\u8c61\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/a>\uff0c\u70ba\u4e9e\u6d32\u5340\u5167\u7684\u6c23\u8c61\u6a5f\u69cb\u63d0\u4f9b\u81e8\u8fd1\u9810\u5831\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u652f\u63f4\u53ca\u57f9\u8a13\uff0c\u5c0d\u964d\u96e8\u8207\u5426\u53ca\u4e00\u822c\u96e8\u52e2\u9810\u5831\u7684\u78ba\u6709\u8ca2\u737b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\u66b4\u96e8\u9810\u5831\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7684\u96e3\u984c\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u4ecd\u7136\u7121\u6cd5\u53c3\u900f\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u5967\u79d8\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

暴雨是影響範圍小而強度變化大的天氣系統。數值預報由於受到解像度及觀測數據局限，無法準確預報定點雨量，只能提供大範圍的降雨情況，表現亦不穩定。因此氣象機構（包括天文台）只能從臨近預報的角度入手，分析雷達圖上的迴波，試圖進行短時預報。 天文台在 1999年推出小渦旋（SWIRLS，Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems）預報系統，多年來以不同算法分辨迴波並預測動向。近年更嘗試進行集合預報及以機器學習的方法處理迴波，但未有研究報告。 文章附上天文台2017年於學術期刊發表的文獻，有興趣的朋友可細閱。這裡只給導讀： 1. 發出雨量預警是 yes\/no 的問題，雨量是否達標也是  yes\/no 的問題，因此就得出四個組合：命中（hit）、虛報（false alarm）、漏報（miss）及正確不預警（correct negative）。統計學上有相當多的指標去判斷表現，其中最常用的是 偵測率\/命中率（POD），虛報率（FAR）及臨界成功指數（CSI）。以上的定義及公式可見附圖1。 2. 要提升命中率，增加預報次數就可以，但同時亦會增加虛報率。 3. 命中率與虛報率隨預報長度下降\/上升。兩者的交點就是打和點，即有效預報的最長時間。 4. 附圖2 是天文台不同算法預測不同雨量的表現。0.5毫米是有雨\/無雨，5毫米是一般降雨，30毫米是暴雨（黃雨）。而TREC 、MOVA及ROVER則是由舊至新的算法。預測有雨\/無雨的表現最好，1小時預報命中率有七成；預測暴雨，1小時預報命中率只有四成。 5. 留意虛報率。預測有雨\/無雨，1小時預報虛報率有三成；預測暴雨，1小時預報虛報率達六成。留意再高的雨量（例如50\/70毫米）沒有顯示，相信也不敢顯示。…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-42"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4026"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4026\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4491,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4026\/revisions\/4491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}