{"id":3590,"date":"2020-11-26T20:04:05","date_gmt":"2020-11-26T12:04:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/blog\/?p=3590"},"modified":"2021-11-16T20:06:33","modified_gmt":"2021-11-16T12:06:33","slug":"ecmwf-%e7%9a%84%e6%b0%a3%e6%ba%ab%e9%9b%86%e5%90%88%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/ecmwf-%e7%9a%84%e6%b0%a3%e6%ba%ab%e9%9b%86%e5%90%88%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1\/","title":{"rendered":"ECMWF \u7684\u6c23\u6eab\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5927\u6c23\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u6df7\u6c8c\u300d\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u89c0\u6e2c\u6578\u64da\u7a0d\u6709\u8aa4\u5dee\uff0c\u9810\u5831\u7d50\u679c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u300c\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u300d\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6a21\u64ec\u6578\u64da\u53ca\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u8aa4\u5dee\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9810\u5831\u7d50\u679c\u63a8\u6572\u9810\u5831\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\u53ca\u767c\u751f\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u8def\u5f91\u96c6\u5408\u53ca\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831\u76f8\u4fe1\u5927\u5bb6\u4e0d\u6703\u964c\u751f\uff0c\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u6c23\u6eab\u5ef6\u4f38\uff08\u6982\u7387\uff09\u9810\u5831\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u898b\u904e\u3002\u96a8\u8457 ECMWF \u4eca\u5e74\u516c\u958b\u9810\u5831\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u5728\u7db2\u4e0a\u89c0\u770b\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u768410\u5929\u96f2\u91cf\u3001\u96e8\u91cf\u3001\u98a8\u529b\u53ca\u6c23\u6eab\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u3002\uff08\u5982\u679c\u8a72\u9ede\u4e0d\u5728\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u9810\u5831\u9ede\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u4ee5\u8a72\u9ede\u56db\u5468\u9810\u5831\u9ede\u4f5c\u63d2\u503c\u904b\u7b97\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u6d77\u62d4\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8abf\u6574\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n

ECMWF \u6709 52 \u500b\u9810\u5831\u6210\u54e1\u3002\u7b2c 1 \u500b\u662f\u6839\u64da\u89c0\u6e2c\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u9ad8\u89e3\u50cf\u6a21\u5f0f\u9032\u884c\u904b\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u9810\u5831\uff08HRES\uff09\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u662f\u5728 Windy \u6216 Tropical Tidbits \u770b\u5230\u7684\u9810\u5831\u3002\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u9019\u662f\u6700\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u9810\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c2\u500b\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5229\u7528\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u89c0\u6e2c\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u653e\u5165\u7c21\u5316\u4e86\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08\u4ee5\u52a0\u5feb\u904b\u7b97\uff09\u8a08\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u9810\u5831\uff08CONTROL\uff09\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6578\u64da\u76f8\u540c\uff0cCONTROL \u8207 HRES \u9810\u5831\u901a\u5e38\u4e26\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9918\u4e0b\u768450\u500b\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5c07\u89c0\u6e2c\u6578\u64da\u53ca\u6a21\u5f0f\u9032\u884c\u64fe\u52d5\uff08pertubation\uff09\u4f86\u6a21\u64ec\u8aa4\u5dee\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5c31\u662f\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u5e73\u5747\uff08ensemble mean\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u8def\u5f91\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u5c31\u662f50\u689d\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9810\u5831\u8def\u5f91\uff08\u5047\u8a2d\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5728\u9810\u5831\u671f\u5167\u672a\u6709\u6d88\u6563\uff09\u3002\u5229\u7528\u9019\u4e9b\u8def\u5f91\u7684\u5206\u6563\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u5f97\u51fa\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u8def\u5f91\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n

— \u6d88\u5316\u6642\u9593 —<\/p>\n

\"2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u6211\u5011\u5728\u4e86\u89e3 ECMWF \u7684\u6c23\u6eab\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u524d\uff0c\u8981\u5c0d\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u300c\u76d2\u9b1a\u5716\u300d\u6216\u300c\u7bb1\u5f62\u5716\u300d\uff08box-whisker plot\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 boxplot\uff09\u6709\u4e9b\u8a8d\u8b58\u3002 \u5047\u8a2d\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u7531\u5c0f\u81f3\u5927\u6392\u5217\u7684\u6578\u5217\uff0c\u6392\u5728\u4e2d\u9593\u7684\u53eb\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\uff08median\uff09\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6578\u5217\u4e2d\u670950%\u7684\u6578\u503c\u6bd4\u5b83\u5c0f\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u5169\u908a\u7684\u6578\u5217\u518d\u4e00\u5206\u70ba\u4e8c\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u4e0b\u56db\u5206\u4f4d\u6578\uff081st quartile, Q1\uff09\u53ca\u4e0a\u56db\u5206\u4f4d\u6578\uff083rd quartile, Q3\uff09\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u4ee3\u8868\u6578\u5217\u4e2d\u6709 25% \u53ca 75% \u7684\u6578\u503c\u6bd4\u5b83\u5c0f\u3002\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\uff0c\u5728\u6578\u5217 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11\u4e2d\uff1a<\/p>\n

Median=6
\nQ1=3
\nQ3=9<\/p>\n

Q1\u81f3Q3\u7684\u8ddd\u96e2\u7a31\u70ba\u56db\u5206\u4f4d\u8ddd\uff08inter-quartile range, IQR\uff09\uff0c\u4ee3\u886850%\u7684\u6578\u503c\u5728\u9019\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u3002IQR\u8d8a\u77ed\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6578\u64da\u8d8a\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76d2\u9b1a\u5716\u4e2d\u300c\u76d2\u300d\uff0c\u8868\u793aQ1\u81f3Q3\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u76d2\u4e2d\u9593\u7684\u7dda\u662f\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u300c\u9b1a\u300d\u7684\u9577\u5ea6\u5247\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u8868\u793a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\u662f\u8868\u793a\u6578\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u53ca\u6700\u5927\u503c\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7a2e\u662f\u8868\u793aQ1-1.5*IQR \u53ca Q3+1.5*IQR\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u7bc4\u570d\u5916\u7684\u6578\u503c\u7a31\u70ba\u7570\u5e38\u503c\uff08outlier\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\"1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u9644\u5716\u662f ECMWF \u9999\u6e2f\u8d64\u9c72\u89d2\u6a5f\u5834\u672a\u4f8610\u5929\u96f2\u91cf\u3001\u96e8\u91cf\u3001\u98a8\u529b\u53ca\u6c23\u6eab\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\uff08\u6642\u9593\u662fUTC\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u6642\u9593\u8981\u52a08\u5c0f\u6642\uff09\u3002\u85cd\u8272\u7dda\u662f HRES\uff0c\u7d05\u8272\u7dda\u662f CONTROL\uff0c\u76d2\u9b1a\u5716\u662f 50\u500b\u6210\u54e1\u9810\u5831\u7684\u5206\u4f48\uff0c\u7559\u610f\u76d2\u5b50\u4e0a\u4e0b\u5404\u6709\u984d\u5916\u4e00\u5c64\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f75-90%\u53ca10-25%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u91dd\u5c0d\u6c23\u6eab\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6b78\u7d0d\u51fa\u5e7e\u9ede\uff1a<\/p>\n

1. \u672a\u4f8610\u5929\u6c23\u6eab\u6709\u5169\u6b21\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u70ba27-29\u65e5\u53ca4-5\u65e5\u65e9\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f8c\u8005\u6c23\u6eab\u6bd4\u524d\u8005\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

2. \u9810\u5831\u521d\u671f\u76d2\u9b1a\u5716 IQR \u8f03\u5c0f\uff08\u76d2\u5b50\u8f03\u7a84\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u9810\u5831\u8f03\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\u8f03\u9ad8\u3002\u9810\u5831\u5f8c\u671fIQR \u8f03\u5927\uff08\u76d2\u5b50\u8f03\u95ca\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u9810\u5831\u8f03\u5206\u6563\uff0c\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

3. \u5728\u90e8\u5206\u9810\u5831\u6642\u9593\uff0cHRES \u7684\u6c23\u6eab\u660e\u986f\u6bd4\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u70ba\u9ad8\uff08\u4f8b\u598226\u53ca27\u65e506UTC\uff0c\u5373\u9999\u6e2f\u6642\u9593\u4e0b\u53482\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u9a57\u8b49\u4e00\u4e0b\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bc\u5982\u4f55\u6f14\u8b6f\u5176\u9918\u6c23\u8c61\u5143\u7d20\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u7559\u5f85\u5927\u5bb6\u767c\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

大氣是一個「混沌」的系統，只要觀測數據稍有誤差，預報結果完全不同。「集合預報」的出現，就是模擬數據及模式的誤差，從不同的預報結果推敲預報的可信性及發生概率。 熱帶氣旋路徑集合及概率預報相信大家不會陌生，天文台氣溫延伸（概率）預報也應該見過。隨著 ECMWF 今年公開預報數據，我們可在網上觀看世界各地的10天雲量、雨量、風力及氣溫集合預報。（如果該點不在模式的預報點上，則以該點四周預報點作插值運算，並以海拔高度調整。） ECMWF 有 52 個預報成員。第 1 個是根據觀測數據，利用高解像模式進行運算得出的預報（HRES），亦即是在 Windy 或 Tropical Tidbits 看到的預報。理論上這是最準確的預報。 第2個成員，就是利用同樣的觀測數據，放入簡化了的集合預報模式（以加快運算）計算得出的控制預報（CONTROL）。由於模式不相同，即使數據相同，CONTROL 與 HRES 預報通常並不相同。 餘下的50個成員，就是將觀測數據及模式進行擾動（pertubation）來模擬誤差，計算出不同的結果。這些結果的平均就是集合預報平均（ensemble mean）。 熱帶氣旋路徑集合預報就是50條不同的預報路徑（假設熱帶氣旋在預報期內未有消散）。利用這些路徑的分散程度，我們就得出熱帶氣旋路徑概率預報。 — 消化時間 — 我們在了解 ECMWF 的氣溫集合預報前，要對統計學上的「盒鬚圖」或「箱形圖」（box-whisker plot，簡稱 boxplot）有些認識。…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-50"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3590"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3590\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3593,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3590\/revisions\/3593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}