\u9999\u6e2f\u57ce\u5e02\u5927\u5b78\u4f73\u9054\u4e9e\u592a\u6c23\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center\uff09\u6628\u65e5\u767c\u8868\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a, \u9810\u6e2c2021\u5e74\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5f62\u6210\u53ca\u767b\u9678\u6578\u76ee\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u6839\u64da\u7f8e\u570b \u00a0NCEP \u7684\u5168\u7403\u6a21\u5f0f CFSv2 downscale \u800c\u6210\u7684\u5340\u57df\u6a21\u5f0f REGCM3\u3002\u5831\u544a\u8981\u767b\u8a18\u500b\u4eba\u8cc7\u6599\u624d\u53ef\u4e0b\u8f09\uff0c\u6211\u5df2\u4e0b\u8f09\u4e26\u653e\u5728\u9019\u88e1\u4f9b\u5927\u5bb6\u53c3\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4eca\u5e74\u662f ENSO neutral\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u904e\u53bb\u7d71\u8a08\u767b\u9678\u83ef\u5357\u3001\u8d8a\u5357\u53ca\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u7684\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u6703\u8f03\u6b63\u5e38\u70ba\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u767b\u9678\u65e5\u672c\u53ca\u97d3\u570b\u5247\u8f03\u6b63\u5e38\u70ba\u5c11\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u4ea6\u5982\u662f\u3002\u6211\u5c07\u5831\u544a\u7684 Table 1 \u53ca 2 \u6574\u5408\u6210\u4e0a\u8868\u3002\uff08\u8868\u4e2d\u7684 Total \u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u5404\u9805\u4e4b\u548c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u53ef\u4ee5\u767b\u9678\u591a\u65bc\u4e00\u6b21\uff0cTotal \u53ea\u7b97\u4e00\u6b21\uff09<\/p>\n
\u5728\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5f62\u6210\u6578\u76ee\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5169\u500b\u6a21\u5f0f\u90fd\u9810\u6e2c4-6\u6708\u6578\u76ee\u504f\u9ad8\u800c7-9\u6708\u63a5\u8fd1\u6b63\u5e38\/\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u57ce\u5927\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u66f4\u9810\u6e2c\u90196\u500b\u6708\u5171\u670919.5\u500b\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5f62\u6210\uff08RSMC Tokyo \u00a0\u6c23\u5019\u503c\u662f13.5\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\u53ca5\u6708\u53ea\u67092\u500b\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u800c\u57ce\u5927\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u537b\u67097\u500b\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5168\u5e74\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
\u81f3\u65bc4-9\u6708\u767b\u9678\u83ef\u5357\u53ca\u8d8a\u5357\u7684\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u6578\u76ee\uff0cRSMC Tokyo \u6c23\u5019\u503c\u7d04 3.x \uff0cNCEP \u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u7d04 3,\u800c \u57ce\u5927\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u7d04 4.x\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9019\u4e9b\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u6c23\u5019\u9810\u5831\u7a76\u7adf\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u53c3\u8003\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u5c31\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u7528\u6642\u9593\u4f86\u9a57\u8b49\u3002<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
香港城市大學佳達亞太氣候研究中心（Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center）昨日發表研究報告, 預測2021年西太平洋熱帶氣旋形成及登陸數目。 中心使用的氣候模式是根據美國 NCEP 的全球模式 CFSv2 downscale 而成的區域模式 REGCM3。報告要登記個人資料才可下載，我已下載並放在這裡供大家參考。 今年是 ENSO neutral，根據過去統計登陸華南、越南及菲律賓的熱帶氣旋會較正常為多，而登陸日本及韓國則較正常為少，今年的預測亦如是。我將報告的 Table 1 及 2 整合成上表。（表中的 Total 不等於各項之和，因為熱帶氣旋可以登陸多於一次，Total 只算一次） 在熱帶氣旋形成數目方面，兩個模式都預測4-6月數目偏高而7-9月接近正常\/偏低。城大的模式更預測這6個月共有19.5個熱帶氣旋形成（RSMC Tokyo 氣候值是13.5）。不過，今年4月及5月只有2個熱帶氣旋形成，而城大的預測卻有7個，明顯偏高，或會影響全年預測的準確性。 至於4-9月登陸華南及越南的熱帶氣旋數目，RSMC Tokyo…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3373"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3373\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4331,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3373\/revisions\/4331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}