{"id":3319,"date":"2021-03-26T14:22:28","date_gmt":"2021-03-26T06:22:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/blog\/?p=3319"},"modified":"2021-06-13T01:18:19","modified_gmt":"2021-06-12T17:18:19","slug":"%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e8%a7%a3%e8%ae%80%e9%99%8d%e9%9b%a8%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e8%a7%a3%e8%ae%80%e9%99%8d%e9%9b%a8%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e9%a0%90%e5%a0%b1\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8b80\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6bcf\u5929\u53ea\u6703\u4e0b\u96e8\u6216\u4e0d\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u4f60\u544a\u8a34\u6211\u660e\u5929\u4e0b\u96e8\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u670960%\uff0c\u6211\u61c9\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u89e3\uff1f\u6700\u8fd1\u53f0\u7063\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u300c\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u300d\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c60\uff05\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f\u630760\uff05\u6a5f\u6703\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u9084\u662f60%\u6642\u9593\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u9084\u662f60\uff05\u9762\u7a4d\u4e0b\u96e8\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.weather.org.hk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/20210326055303-8c6b49f2fc5823371ed97d1676100e0b31f38b99.png\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.weather.org.hk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/20210326055303-8c6b49f2fc5823371ed97d1676100e0b31f38b99-1024x922.png?resize=760%2C684\" alt=\"20210326055303-8c6b49f2fc5823371ed97d1676100e0b31f38b99\" width=\"760\" height=\"684\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-3320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/20210326055303-8c6b49f2fc5823371ed97d1676100e0b31f38b99.png?resize=1024%2C922&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/20210326055303-8c6b49f2fc5823371ed97d1676100e0b31f38b99.png?resize=300%2C270&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/20210326055303-8c6b49f2fc5823371ed97d1676100e0b31f38b99.png?resize=768%2C691&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/20210326055303-8c6b49f2fc5823371ed97d1676100e0b31f38b99.png?w=2000&amp;ssl=1 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 760px) 100vw, 760px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n\u5716\uff1aECMWF 3\u670828\u65e5\u665a\u4e0a8\u6642\u4e4b10\u6beb\u7c73\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u6c5f\u5357\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5730\u5340\u5c07\u6703\u6709\u96e8\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8b80\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8a08\u7b97\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1. \u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831\u662f\u6839\u64da\u7d93\u9a57\/\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\u5236\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6c23\u8c61\u689d\u4ef6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6c23\u6eab\u3001\u76f8\u5c0d\u6fd5\u5ea6\u3001\u6c23\u58d3\u3001\u98a8\u7b49\uff09\u904e\u53bb\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86100\u6b21\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u670960\u6b21\u4e0b\u96e8\uff08\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u738760%\uff09\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u6211\u5011\u53c8\u9810\u6e2c\u76f8\u540c\uff08\u6216\u76f8\u4f3c\uff09\u7684\u6c23\u8c61\u689d\u4ef6\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u9810\u6e2c\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u662f60%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2. \u5728\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u64da\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\u5236\u5b9a\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387 = \u96e8\u5340\u79fb\u5165\u9810\u5831\u7bc4\u570d\uff08\u6216\u5728\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u5f62\u6210\uff09\u6982\u7387 x  \u96e8\u5340\u5f71\u97ff\u9762\u7a4d\u767e\u5206\u7387<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u9810\u6e2c\u96e8\u5340\u79fb\u5165\u9810\u5831\u7bc4\u570d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f60%\uff0c\u4f46\u96e8\u5340\u5c07\u6703\u5f71\u97ff100%\u7684\u9762\u7a4d\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u662f 60% x 100% = 60%<\/p>\n<p>\u53c8\u4f8b\u5982\u9810\u6e2c\u96e8\u5340\u79fb\u5165\u9810\u5831\u7bc4\u570d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f100%\uff0c\u4f46\u96e8\u5340\u53ea\u6703\u5f71\u97ff60%\u7684\u9762\u7a4d\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u662f 100% x 60% = 60%<\/p>\n<p>3. \u73fe\u6642\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e3b\u8981\u6839\u64da\u96fb\u8166\u9810\u5831\u6a21\u5f0f\u518d\u7d93\u4eba\u70ba\u4fee\u8a02\uff0c\u800c\u96fb\u8166\u6a21\u5f0f\u6bcf\u6b21\u8a08\u7b97\u53ea\u6703\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u7d50\u679c\uff1a\u4e0b\u96e8\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u4ee5\u6982\u7387\u8868\u793a\u5c31\u662f100\uff05\u62160\uff05\uff0c\u300c\u61c9\u8a72\u4fc2\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u5514\u4fc2\u300d\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u89ba\u5f97\u6709\u9ede\u300c\u5ee2\u8a71\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96a8\u8457\u96fb\u8166\u904b\u7b97\u901f\u5ea6\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u521d\u59cb\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0d\u65b7\u4fee\u6539\uff08\u6a21\u64ec\u89c0\u6e2c\u6578\u64da\u6709\u504f\u5dee\uff09\uff0c\u91cd\u8986\u8a08\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7d50\u679c\uff1a\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u4e0d\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u3002\u65bc\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387 \uff1d \u9810\u6e2c\u4e0b\u96e8\u6b21\u6578 \uff0f \u9810\u6e2c\u7e3d\u6b21\u6578 * 100%&#8230;.. (1)<\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u5373\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c60\uff05\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u662f\u9810\u6e2c100\u6b21\uff0c\u670960\u6b21\u7d50\u679c\u6703\u4e0b\u96e8\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u5c0d\u6578\u5b57\u7684\u611f\u89ba\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6709\u4eba60\uff05\u5c31\u6703\u5e36\u96e8\u5098\uff0c\u6709\u4eba80\uff05\u624d\u5e36\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba100\uff05\u90fd\u4e0d\u5e36\u3002<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9608061977658362\"\n     data-ad-slot=\"2236434268\"><\/ins><br \/>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u6700\u8fd1\u516c\u4f48\u4e8610\u6beb\u7c73\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u5c0730%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5b9a\u70ba\u4f4e\uff0c70%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5b9a\u70ba\u9ad8\uff0c30-70% \u518d\u5206\u70ba\u4e2d\u4f4e\u3001\u4e2d\u53ca\u4e2d\u9ad8\u300210\u6beb\u7c73\u96e8\u91cf\u6709\u5e7e\u591a\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u51ac\u5929\u6574\u65e5\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u6216\u590f\u5929\u4e00\u5834\u6fd5\u8eab\u5927\u9a5f\u96e8\u7684\u96e8\u91cf\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u6236\u5916\u6d3b\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7576\u7136\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a2d\u5b9a\u5176\u4ed6\u6578\u503c x\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5c07\u516c\u5f0f (1) \u7b2c\u4e00\u9805\u4fee\u6539\u70ba\u300c\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0b\u96e8 x \u6beb\u7c73\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6b21\u6578\u300d\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u3002\u7576\u7136 x \u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u8d8a\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u9032\u6b65\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u7121\u68f1\u5169\u53ef\u7684\u9810\u5831\u7522\u54c1\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\u98a8\u5b63\u5927\u5bb6\u53c3\u8003\u7684\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u8def\u5f91\u6982\u7387\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u539f\u7406\u88fd\u6210\u300250\u689d\u9810\u5831\u8def\u5f91\u90fd\u7d93\u904e\u9999\u6e2f120\u516c\u91cc\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u5439\u8972\u6982\u7387(strike probablilty) \u5c31\u662f50\/50*100%=100%\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#27599;&#22825;&#21482;&#26371;&#19979;&#38632;&#25110;&#19981;&#19979;&#38632;&#65292;&#20320;&#21578;&#35380;&#25105;&#26126;&#22825;&#19979;&#38632;&#27231;&#26371;&#29575;&#26377;60%&#65292;&#25105;&#25033;&#35442;&#22914;&#20309;&#29702;&#35299;&#65311;&#26368;&#36817;&#21488;&#28771;&#20986;&#29694;&#20102;&#12300;&#38477;&#38632;&#27010;&#29575;&#12301;&#30340;&#35342;&#35542;&#65292;60&#65285;&#38477;&#38632;&#27010;&#29575;&#26159;&#25351;60&#65285;&#27231;&#26371;&#19979;&#38632;&#65292;&#36996;&#26159;60%&#26178;&#38291;&#19979;&#38632;&#65292;&#36996;&#26159;60&#65285;&#38754;&#31309;&#19979;&#38632;&#65311;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-50"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3319"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3319\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3343,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3319\/revisions\/3343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}