{"id":1603,"date":"2015-07-03T17:14:04","date_gmt":"2015-07-03T09:14:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/blog\/?p=1603"},"modified":"2015-07-03T17:23:40","modified_gmt":"2015-07-03T09:23:40","slug":"%e7%86%b1%e5%b8%b6%e6%b0%a3%e6%97%8b%e6%b4%bb%e5%8b%95%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/%e7%86%b1%e5%b8%b6%e6%b0%a3%e6%97%8b%e6%b4%bb%e5%8b%95%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99\/","title":{"rendered":"\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u9be8\u9b5a\u516d\u6708\u5728\u5357\u6d77\u5f62\u6210\u4e26\u767b\u9678\u6d77\u5357\u5cf6\u5f8c\uff0c\u83ef\u5357\u6cbf\u5cb8\u518d\u6b21\u53d7\u526f\u71b1\u5e36\u9ad8\u58d3\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9177\u71b1\u5929\u6c23\u91cd\u81e8\u3002\u4f46\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5929\u6c23\u537b\u76f8\u7576\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u9810\u5831\u986f\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e8c\u81f3\u4e09\u500b\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5f62\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5f62\u6210\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u5b9a\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6eab\u6696\u7684\u6d77\u6c34\uff0c\u5730\u9762\u9006\u6642\u91dd\u65cb\u8f49\u7684\u98a8\uff0c\u53ca\u9ad8\u7a7a\u5fae\u5f31\u7684\u98a8\u5207\u8b8a\u7b49\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5927\u6c23\u74b0\u6d41\u8b8a\u5316\u4ea6\u6703\u5f15\u767c\u6216\u58d3\u6291\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u65e9\u57281971\u5e74\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u71b1\u5e36\u5730\u5340\u7684\u5927\u6c23\u74b0\u6d41\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u5468\u671f\u70ba30\u81f360\u5929\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u7531\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u5411\u6771\u9032\u5165\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\uff0c\u518d\u6a6b\u904e\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u9032\u5165\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u3002\u671f\u9593\u5c0d\u6d41\u6d3b\u52d5\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u6d3b\u8e8d\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u96f7\u66b4\u4e26\u5f15\u767c\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8b8a\u5316\u7a31\u70baMadden-Julian Oscillation\uff08MJO\uff09\uff0c\u53c8\u7a31\u5b63\u7bc0\u5167\u632f\u76ea\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u662f\u6709\u5468\u671f\u7684\u3002\u7576\u5e73\u975c\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u65e5\u5b50\u5f8c\uff0c\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u8b8a\u5f97\u6d3b\u8e8d\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u53c8\u5e73\u975c\u4e0b\u4f86\u3002\u800c\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u8207\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7684\u5468\u671f\u525b\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u6d3b\u8e8d\u6642\uff0c\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6703\u6c89\u5bc2\u4e0b\u4f86\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n

MJO \u7531\u897f\u5411\u6771\u79fb\u52d5\uff0c\u901f\u5ea6\u7d04\u70ba\u6bcf\u5c0f\u664215\uff0d30\u516c\u91cc\u3002MJO\u6d3b\u8e8d\u8207\u5426\u53ef\u5229\u7528\u5730\u7403\u540c\u6b65\u885b\u661f\u76e3\u6e2c\u5927\u6c23\u5411\u5916\u767c\u51fa\u9577\u6ce2\u8f3b\u5c04\uff08OLR\uff09\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u3002\u4e0b\u5716\u70baOLR\u96a8\u6642\u9593\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u85cd\u8272\u5730\u5340\u4ee3\u8868\u9577\u6ce2\u8f3b\u5c04\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u5c0d\u6d41\u6d3b\u52d5\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bcMJO\u6d3b\u8e8d\u5730\u5340\u3002\u7d05\u8272\u5730\u5340\u5247\u4ee3\u8868\u9577\u6ce2\u8f3b\u5c04\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5c0d\u6d41\u6d3b\u52d5\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bcMJO\u4e0d\u6d3b\u8e8d\u5730\u5340\u3002MJO\u6d3b\u8e8d\u5730\u5340\u7531\u897f\u5411\u6771\u79fb\u52d5\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5728\u5340\u5167\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n

\"mjoforecast2\"<\/a>
\n\u5716\uff1aGFS\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\u986f\u793a\u8207MJO\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u5927\u6c23\u9577\u6ce2\u8f3b\u5c04\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u85cd\u8272\u5340\u57df\u70baMJO\u6d3b\u8e8d\u5340\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u767c\u5c55\u3002\uff08\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aClimate Prediction Center, NOAA\uff09<\/p>\n

\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u7684\u79fb\u52d5\u53d7\u526f\u71b1\u5e36\u9ad8\u58d3\u8986\u84cb\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u53ca\u5f37\u5ea6\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u7576\u526f\u71b1\u5e36\u9ad8\u58d3\u589e\u5f37\u4e26\u897f\u4f38\uff0c\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u4fbf\u5411\u897f\u79fb\u52d5\u9032\u5165\u5357\u6d77\uff1b\u7576\u526f\u71b1\u5e36\u9ad8\u58d3\u6e1b\u5f31\u4e26\u6771\u9000\uff0c\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u4fbf\u5411\u5317\u79fb\u52d5\u8da8\u5411\u65e5\u672c\u53ca\u97d3\u570b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u8fd1\u8ddd\u96e2\u6709\u5169\u500b\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4ea6\u6703\u4e92\u76f8\u727d\u5f15\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u5f7c\u6b64\u79fb\u52d5\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7a31\u70ba\u85e4\u539f\u6548\u61c9\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u4ee4\u9810\u5831\u51fa\u73fe\u8f03\u5927\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6709\u591a\u500b\u4f4e\u58d3\u5340\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u5df2\u589e\u5f37\u70ba\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u71e6\u9d3b\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5176\u6771\u9762\u53ca\u897f\u9762\u7684\u5169\u500b\u4f4e\u58d3\u5340\u4ea6\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u71b1\u5e36\u6c23\u65cb\u6d3b\u52d5\u5c07\u8b8a\u5f97\u6d3b\u8e8d\uff0c\u8a08\u5283\u5916\u904a\u6216\u516c\u5e79\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u8981\u7559\u610f\u5929\u6c23\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a
\n1. GFS Ensemble MJO Forecast<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

熱帶氣旋鯨魚六月在南海形成並登陸海南島後，華南沿岸再次受副熱帶高壓影響，酷熱天氣重臨。但西太平洋天氣卻相當不穩定，預報顯示可能有二至三個熱帶氣旋形成。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1603","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1603"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1603\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1606,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1603\/revisions\/1606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1603"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1603"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1603"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}