\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u4e0a\u9031\u9810\u6e2c\u672c\u9031\u591a\u96f2\u3001\u6709\u96e8\u53ca\u96f7\u66b4\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u672c\u9031\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6642\u9593\u6709\u967d\u5149\u3002\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u70ba\u4f55\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\uff1f<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u53ef\u6309\u7167\u9810\u5831\u6642\u9593\u9577\u77ed\u5206\u70ba\u5e7e\u500b\u985e\u5225\uff1a
\n– \u81e8\u8fd1\u9810\u5831\uff08nowcasting\uff09\uff1a\u9810\u5831\u672a\u4f86\u77ed\u6642\u9593\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4e09\u81f3\u516d\u5c0f\u6642\uff09\u5167\u7684\u5929\u6c23
\n– \u77ed\u671f\u9810\u5831\uff08short-range forecast\uff09\uff1a\u9810\u5831\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5169\u65e5\u7684\u5929\u6c23
\n– \u4e2d\u671f\u9810\u5831\uff08medium-range forecast\uff09\uff1a\u9810\u5831\u672a\u4f86\u4e09\u81f3\u4e03\u65e5\u7684\u5929\u6c23
\n– \u9577\u671f\u9810\u5831\uff08long-range forecast\uff09\uff1a\u9810\u5831\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u81f3\u5169\u661f\u671f\u7684\u5929\u6c23
\n– \u5b63\u5ea6\u9810\u5831\uff08seasonal forecast\uff09\uff1a\u9810\u5831\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u81f3\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u7684\u5929\u6c23<\/p>\n
\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e00\u822c\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u96fb\u8166\u6a21\u64ec\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u8f38\u5165\u73fe\u6642\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u518d\u5229\u7528\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u6a21\u64ec\u5927\u6c23\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u4fbf\u80fd\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u67d0\u500b\u6642\u9593\u5f8c\u7684\u5929\u6c23\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7a31\u70ba\u6578\u503c\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\uff08numerical weather prediction\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u5927\u6c23\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6df7\u6c8c\uff08chaos\uff09\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u8f38\u5165\u7684\u6578\u64da\u51fa\u73fe\u5c11\u8a31\u5dee\u7570\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u91cf\u5ea6\u5100\u5668\u51fa\u73fe\u8aa4\u5dee\uff09\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u9019\u73fe\u8c61\u7a31\u70ba\u8774\u8776\u6548\u61c9\uff08butterfly effect\uff09\uff0c\u6bd4\u55bb\u5728\u67d0\u5730\u62cd\u7ffc\u7684\u8774\u8776\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\u6578\u5343\u516c\u91cc\u5916\u51fa\u73fe\u9f8d\u6372\u98a8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8d8a\u9577\uff0c\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u8d8a\u4f4e\u3002\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u79d1\u6280\u9032\u6b65\uff0c\u9019\u60c5\u6cc1\u5df2\u6162\u6162\u5f97\u5230\u6539\u5584\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u9810\u5831\u4e94\u65e5\u5f8c\u5929\u6c23\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u9810\u5831\u5169\u65e5\u5f8c\u5929\u6c23\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7684\u9810\u5831\u5247\u53ea\u80fd\u7528\u4f5c\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u4ea6\u53d6\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5b63\u7bc0\u53ca\u5730\u7406\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u51ac\u5929\u7684\u9810\u5831\u6bd4\u590f\u5929\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c\u71b1\u5e36\u5730\u5340\u7684\u9810\u5831\u6bd4\u6eab\u5e36\u5730\u5340\u6e96\u78ba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7531\u65bc\u5404\u570b\u63a1\u7528\u7684\u6a21\u64ec\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u53d6\u6368\u8981\u9760\u9810\u5831\u54e1\u7d93\u9a57\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5404\u500b\u6a21\u5f0f\u9810\u5831\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u76f8\u7576\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u5168\u90e8\u51fa\u932f\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u6709\u6642\u300c\u529b\u6392\u773e\u8b70\u300d\u7684\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u6700\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u9810\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6578\u503c\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u9010\u6f38\u65bc\u7db2\u4e0a\u666e\u53ca\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u58eb\u53ef\u514d\u8cbb\u89c0\u770b\u5716\u8868\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u53c3\u8003\u50f9\u503c\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u6709\u6b50\u6d32\u4e2d\u671f\u9810\u5831\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08ECMWF\uff09\u3001\u5168\u7403\u9810\u6e2c\u7cfb\u7d71\uff08GFS\uff09\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u6c23\u8c61\u5ef3\uff08JMA\uff09\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u96fb\u8166\u904b\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u9810\u5831\u54e1\u5617\u8a66\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u6578\u503c\u8f38\u5165\u6a21\u5f0f\u9032\u884c\u904b\u7b97\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7d50\u679c\u518d\u9032\u884c\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7a31\u70ba\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\uff08ensemble forecast\uff09\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5229\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u9032\u884c\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7a31\u70ba\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u9810\u5831\uff08poor man\u2019s ensemble forecast\uff09\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u986f\u793a\u5169\u8005\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u90fd\u8f03\u55ae\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u70ba\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
天文台上週預測本週多雲、有雨及雷暴，結果本週大部分時間有陽光。天氣預報為何不準確？<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1405"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4005,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1405\/revisions\/4005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weather.org.hk\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}