| Author | Message | ||
     Alanwu8 Registered: 08-2008 |
ECMWF Model is predicting a low forming east of Luzon Friday and passings to our south next Tuesday with good strength. The strengthening of the ridge mentioned by HKO later in the week explains such westerly track. Lets keep an eye if anything does pop out there next 2-3 days. | ||
| Low Registered: 09-2008 |
HKO update 92W to TD at 11 am today with press release confirmed by 1 pm today. However, it is a bit strange that no grid reference for this TD at 1 pm bulletin. For the strength and movement, a 85km/h TS at about 150-200km SSW of HK should not able to bring us any gale. | ||
| Kevin Registered: 03-2007 |
Don't forget this is just the first bulletin! While I also think this is just a T3, a colleague of mine who used to work in HKO and for this forum said that by the looks of things and based on his years of experience this one seems to be a T8 case. Not sure why he has that deduction but let's see... | ||
| James Shum Registered: 03-2007 |
From the visible satellite image, there seems to be 2 centres east of Luzon. One locates at 19.5N 125E and the other at 18N 123E just off the coast of Luzon. Most agents fix at the first centre but not sure if there will be any change in near future. It is more interesting to see a forming system than a mature TC. | ||
| Kevin Registered: 03-2007 |
Low: I suddenly recall Kammuri in 2008. In the first bulletin, it was forecasted to be below STS strength at its CPA to HK. It was then a 60kt STS. (The situation now looks a bit familiar...) | ||
| James Shum Registered: 03-2007 |
HKO just released the first location of the TD which is at the second point I mentioned above. The moving speed is not so fast and it may leave more time for it to consolidate. | ||
| Low Registered: 09-2008 |
If in case of finally STS passing 150-200km SSW, chance of having gale is higher than before. It depends on the wind radii of this TD. Up to this moment, ECMWF doesn't support for a big one. That's why I am not optimistic for having gale. | ||
| Clarence Fong Registered: 03-2007 |
GFS, NGP and ECMWF favour either intensity or track: either a T moving west along 20N, or a TS with direct hit to HK. It's quite a mixed scenario. We will have a T8 if it is a TS with direct hit, but we won't have a T8 if it is a T passing more than 200km south of HK. Let's bet. ;) | ||
| relativity Registered: 05-2011 |
STS passing through 20 N at 115 E , then 21 N 113 E , joking with the HKO  | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
From latest visible image from NRL, there are two LLCC, one at 18N 123E, another one at 20N 124E. It will take some time for it to consolidate and improve its structure. | ||
| Terence Registered: 03-2007 |
The Computer Forecast Weather Map of HKO keep increasing the intensity of 92W at T+72 hours. As the model have good performance in Doksuri's case, it's worth to pay some attention on it. The track is similiar with Doksuri as well, environment is more favourable now, I think 92W will be a STS when it comes to the CPA. HKO's model even predict it is a marginal TY at T+72 hours.  | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
So far, just a big disorganised system. But bringing steamy hot smog just now; perhaps will be some impressive thunderstorms soon. | ||
| powerman Registered: 03-2007 |
Dear, let calculate the wind speed forcasted by EC 00utc today as below:  The light green zone cover HK, that mean: min. 20x3.6x0.8=57.6 km/h max. 25x3.6x0.8=72 km/h HKO's Gale force winds:63-117 km/h Just let see what will happen on 23/7. | ||
| Alex Wu Registered: 09-2011 |
The tropical depression has been named Vincente by JMA at 21:25 HKT, but the latest shipping warning (issued at 21:30 HKT) and the tropical cyclone warning bulletin still didn't mention... probably HKO is sleeping without noticing the update of JMA... | ||
| Alex Wu Registered: 09-2011 |
Typo: "Vicente" rather than "Vincente" | ||
| Clarence Fong Registered: 03-2007 |
powerman: Have to reduce those 850hPa winds down to surface. In short, we need a STS to have #8 signal if the CPA is more than 100km. | ||
| Alex Wu Registered: 09-2011 |
ACCORDING TO PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE, THE ISSUANCE OF SIGNAL NO.8 MAY BE NECESSITATED IF VICENTE STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AND SKIRTS WITHIN 150KM OF HONG KONG LATER (I.E. ADOPTING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK). | ||
| Forum Administrator Registered: 03-2007 |
As a courtesy we do not recommend users to post in all caps. Thank you for your attention. | ||
| powerman Registered: 03-2007 |
Clarence: I reduce the 850hPa 20% already : 25x3.6x0.8=72km/h | ||
| Alanwu8 Registered: 08-2008 |
Now the mainland joins HKO for a North West track when Vincente starts moving again while the rest remains westerly. Winds in HK are not that strong suggests a tight band of gales around Vincente. Do you think we still need No 8 if the CPA is around 20N 114E ? | ||
| Carlton L Registered: 06-2009 |
In the Satellite Fix Bulletin of JTWC (both 12 and 15UTC), Vincente is regarded to be having a CCC structure. However, i particularly read the definition of CCC online, Vincente does not really look like a typical CCC on IR so far... it's really difficult to judge if a storm is having a CCC for a beginner like me... | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
Well, so quite in English Forum. 09W has great chance to become typhoon as the environment is very favourable now and moving slowly. We should be able to enjoy some good wind. | ||
| wkliu Registered: 08-2008 |
Thanks Rabbit for posting in English forum. Well, the VWS is just forcasted to be moderate (not light). I think the enviroment is just favourable. So, what else do you think to make it "very" favorable? | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/winds/wgmssht.GIF This is very favorable in my opinion ! | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
The current wind shear is light already (<10kt), and the sea temperature of SCS is good (28C). For Typhoon grade cyclone, moderate VWS (<20kt) is not a problem at all. Anyway, the SLP from real time PY30-1 is 968hPa... it should be a typhoon, wonder why HKO still put it as a 90km/h system. (Message edited by admin on July 29, 2012) | ||
| cekwc Registered: 08-2008 |
Rabbit: I always consider that the response of HKO for updating the intensity of a TC is quite slow. I agree that at least it should be a minimal typhoon.BTW, the eye seems to enter the 256km radar just now. | ||
| wkliu Registered: 08-2008 |
HKO upgraded the wind speed to 105 km/h in 11am. Looks like it is a gesture/preparation for the signal 8. HKO may issue No. 8 and upgrade it to typhoon at the same time. | ||
| sling Registered: 06-2008 |
Both the VWS and the SST are favourable. However, the slow motion of the storm may hinder its development as the cooler water is being stirred up to the surface. In any case, there is a reasonable chance of gale in Hong Kong. The path would likely follow a N and then NNW (or NW) direction. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
sling: I often see this upwelling near the coast when on flow that has some N components to it, but seems also is very thin and limited to a strip very close to the coast. This year SSTs are exceptionally high in SCS, not so far offshore they are at 30C or more ! | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
SLP of PY30-1 is still dropping and it is 964.7hPa now. I agree that HKO will issue signal 8 pre-warning when they upgrade 09W to typhoon. | ||
| momoko Registered: 06-2009 |
Does it really matter if Vicente becomes a typhoon? According to my memory, the 50% gale probability region extends a bit further SW for STS than for TY. (not significantly different though) As we are experiencing the wind speed at the outskirt rather than the centre of Vicente, I don't think a STS or TY will be much different. It only matters if Vicente comes surprisingly close and we discuss the chance of signal higher than No.8. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
Rabbit: where you get PY30-1 data ? | ||
| Low Registered: 09-2008 |
Wind field of gale not significantly increased together with intensifying trend so far. With not forecasting entering 100km from HK, I don't think there will be chance of any signal higher than No.8. | ||
| Xavier Fung Registered: 06-2009 |
Simone - For your interest: http://www.gd12121.com/special/zytzdz/G3598/G3598.htm Seems the pressure is still going down as of writing. | ||
| relativity Registered: 05-2011 |
Simone, Here it is: http://www.gd12121.com/special/zytzdz/G3598/G3598.htm You can find it in the Chinese forum (Part 1 of 09W) | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
Simone: http://www.gd12121.com/special/zytzdz/G3598/G3598.htm It drops to 962.9hPa now! | ||
| Eric Li Registered: 06-2009 |
So far the storm is still intensifying which we could expect the gale wind field would further enlarge. With the present track of having more northerly component, it is getting a higher chance of No.8 by tonight. The Observatory kept saying the wind speed is intensifying. Also they do not opt out the possibility of No.8 from their bulletin. Seems like the chance is not that low. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
Thank you guys !! Precious link !! That is really a great service. | ||
| MrM Registered: 03-2007 |
Vicente is still slow jogging poleward, the time of CPA may be postponed to midnight or before dawn of 24/7. however, a later westward turn can be a great news for us, especially when it is made in suitable time | ||
| Low Registered: 09-2008 |
With the intensifying trend and forecast WNW track later, I consider No.8 for tonight will be almost secured. The only question is when the outlying island (Waglan and Cheung Chau) will have wind significantly pick up. Wind strength of Cheung Chau just touched F6 at 10 minutes ago. If this trend keep going and reach F8 by 4 pm, I think No.8 pre-warning will be released by then. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
I am wondering that even it starts the westward movement now, it may still land much east than Yangjiang, as a Typhoon most likely. I may get well into the storm semicircle and with SE flow into the estuary, might see quite a strong weather tomorrow morning at my place ! (I am not far away from Shunde Ferry Port). Readings on the platform are seriously impressive, as it is breaking 960 hpa soon. Don't forget that Wanda was 95X at landfall... and this is intensifying. I wonder if agencies are seriously underestimating it at the moment... also, highest reading on the platform for 2 min/winds is 36.7 m/s, which is seriously high (probably the height of the platform is playing a role as well tough !). | ||
| Eric Li Registered: 06-2009 |
Agree. It is quite a headache to consider the transportation arrangement for outlying residents now. Now the situation is embarrassing as the time to issue No. 8 might be just after office hour. Then the pre warning should be around 4 something to make sure the people going back home to Outlying Island have enough time to catch the last ferry. | ||
| MrM Registered: 03-2007 |
In the previous hours, the wind intensity of PY30-1 kept increasing till 0930, and then it decreased till 1030 and increased again till 1100, after that the wind intensity dropped quite quickly. What can be suggested from it? | ||
| momoko Registered: 06-2009 |
MrM: It suggests that PY30-1 has entered the light wind core of Vicente. Didn't we see a similar scenario when Nuri hit HK a few years ago? | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
PY30-1 has entered the center of 09W, now the SLP is 960hPa only with wind speed at 2.3m/s (almost no wind). We will see the full power of 09W soon after it re-enter to the eye wall. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
Why they totally disregard the readings on the platform ... ? It is sub 960 hpa already... Sat and radar presentation is compatible with CAT 1~2 TY. Maybe T numbers haven't picked yet on the pressure fall. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
According to radar, the center is about to near 200 km from HK. What a presentation, even in this radar that usually picks up only noises ! http://www.weather.com.cn/static/radar_video_v1.php?class=JC_RADAR_HN_JB | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
An eye is visible now on both visible satellite image and IR image, something unthinkable two days beforel. Let's see if it can further intensify before landfall. | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
Wind here on Cheung Chau has really picked up in last few minutes; now blasting through the trees near my place. Also lashing down with rain. | ||
| TimC Registered: 06-2009 |
The banding eye of Vicente has become mature and discernible!!!There is still plenty of time left for Vicente to stengthen furthermore since it is still far away from the shore. As the central pressure---960hPa and 35m/s 10-min average wind speed were recorded at noon, it would be certainly a strong typhoon (cat.2-cat.3) when it made landfall.... | ||
| Alanwu8 Registered: 08-2008 |
Ithink HKO should have hoisted the number 8 earlier (like before 4pm) rather than wait for the Hong Kong market closed. It is dangerous to the public. | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
On HK Obs 256km radar, animation seems to me to show the eye heading straight for west Hong Kong. In HK Obs, may be people saying "come on, come on, make that turn to more westward track" ... even as Vicente aims for us. | ||
| Jim Registered: 03-2007 |
Vicente is definitely a TC of typhoon strength. However, the SW winds at the Oil Platform fell short of hurricane force after the passage of Vicente, indicating that Vicente is a marginal typhoon instead of a severe one. Let see whether it will further strengthen in the coming few hours. | ||
| tony_yau Registered: 06-2009 |
As most of us expected, latest HKO fix upgraded 09W to be a typhoon with sustained wind 120 km/hr. Throughout these day HKO-NHM model has constantly providing scenrio of Landing W to Macau instead of Luizhou. Viewing from Radar image loop,09W is moving NNW heading towards PWD. Wind speed is still picking up in Waglan, with now F9 wind. 09W is still gradually intendifying, a strong signal 8 is expected. The latest computer model output predict peak wind at around midnight.The major determinate would be the path, and when it would be changed to NW or WNW, as provided by all of the authorities. | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
It seems 09W is still taking a NW/NNW track from HKO radar up to this moment. The anticipated WNW track is yet to start... The center of 09W look better and better now, maybe it has chance to become strong typhoon before landfall. | ||
| Office Assistant Registered: 10-2010 |
If so, Vicente will be devastating to HKSAR regardless of whether higher typhoon signal will be issued. I just care about the residents in Tai O prone to the attack of storm surge. | ||
| Tong Registered: 03-2007 |
I agreed with Rabbit, latest look of Vincente at 5:48pm showed a very good shape at centre, with circular eye. The yellow region around the eye is also becoming symmetric. I just wonder there will be an increase in maximum sustained wind speed in coming reports. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
Oh my God, the last radar frame of HKO... Only Chancu back in 2006 attained such beauty !!! One of the best storms ever to appear in radar ! | ||
| bryantenglishHK Registered: 07-2012 |
Boo to the HKO for delaying T8 for so long... I cannot understand why they delay some, like this potentially dangerous storm, but they hoist T8 when there's not enough wind to fly a kite.. | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
A wonderful eye structure on the HKO radar with convective feeder bands wrapping into the circular eye! This time the HKO is very "judicious" in the timing of No. 8, just in time for people to go home before the strong rainbands struck after 6pm. | ||
| jchong Registered: 06-2011 |
Just now I went to Hung Hom Pier and recorded gust of 101km/h. When I look at the radar image, the structure of Vicente was so complete that does not deserve only a marginal typhoon. I think CMA is correct to grade it 38m/s. | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
It is interesting most forum amateur meteorologists have not discussed the possibility of No. 9 yet, despite the fact Vicente is still increasing in strength at this center, has a "typical" symmetric wrapping eye pattern with clear convective feeder bands, and is slowing trending NNW in the past 1 hour. If it continues to move north, No. 9 cannot be ruled out. Climatologically, this is mid-end July and SST are very warm with good outlfow. A Higher signal is indeed possible, even though all Agencies forecast a WNW track now. | ||
| Tong Registered: 03-2007 |
I think HKO is ready is saying so (No. 9 can't be ruled out), if Vincente still hasn't crossed south of Hong Kong when it has moved to about 100km away from Hong Kong. | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
In the South China Coastal Waters Bulletin issued at 19:30 HKT 23/Jul/2012, Hong Kong Adjacent Waters have been issued the Hurricane Force Warning with Very High and Phenomenal Seas. From what I recalled, Very High to Phenomenal Seas in HK Adjacent Waters are indeed very rare. I remembered I took the Macau Ferry just after the lowering of a No. 8 signal to No. 3 from Macau back to HK some years ago with "Very Rough and High Seas" and a lot of people vomited on the boat and it was like a "roller-coaster" ride. The seas must have been 2m at the very least from crest to trough. I am not sure anyone has experienced in "Phenomenal Seas" on a cruise ship in open seas? East to northeast force 10, becoming southeast force 10 to 11 gradually, up to force 12 in south. Very high to phenomenal seas. | ||
| tony_yau Registered: 06-2009 |
There is no sign that 09W would change its course in latest hour, judging from the radar images. As 09W grows, the internal force would continue to add on the northward (NW in reality), making the WNW prediction track less likely. We have a good chance that 09W would be within 100km. Right now Waglan and Tai Mei Tuk is having F10, we should consider signal no 9 XD | ||
| Eric Li Registered: 06-2009 |
Vicente is now within 150km of Hong Kong. In the past few hours, it is moving NW at night rather than WNW which is forecast by the Observatory. In addition, the local wind is still increasing. I do agree the possibility of No.9 can't be ruled out as the chance for Vicente moving within 100km is here. I could say Vicente has impressed many of us for the strength. The radar image can clearly see the eye feature of the storm which has not happened for a while. The proximity to Hong Kong is another thing out of expectation. It was used to predict as moving to Hainan before while now it is actually edging to just west of Macau! | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
How can centers say "NW" ? I looked the left edge of the eyewall till 4 PM today, is STILL well on the same line as it was before ! It is heading directly toward the PRD area, and maybe it will land on Macao or Zhuhai directly, who knows ! Certainly is not veering WNW just yet. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
CIMSS ADT numbers are sky rocketing !!!!!!!! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/09WP.GIF Raw T now is at 5.4, or about 100 knots !! | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
Green Island, Tai Mei Tuk, Waglan Island, Tate's Cairn, Ngong Ping now recorded Hurricane Force Gusts. If we have more stations on the ground with hurricane force gusts in the next 2 hours, No. 9 is indeed possible. | ||
| Sam Lau Registered: 03-2007 |
I suppose HKO's staff would have the intention to discuss the chance of No. 9 signal. Tai Mei Tuk has seen F10, Waglan Island seen max 10-min wind of 112, equivalent of high end of F10. The storm is still in its approach and there could be a chance Waglan seeing 126 so I suppose HKO's staff would have that intention. | ||
| TC Registered: 07-2009 |
From the latest track 7PM to 8PM from HKO, it seemed that Vicente has been moving north to NNW and it will likely to come closer to us in the new few hours if no major change in its course. The wind outside is very forceful outside and that I have not experienced at least for the last 7 years for myself. From HKO radar, the eye seemed to widen a bit in the last hour and we shall have a good windy night tonight... Let's see how it get on... | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
Perhaps HK Obs should give some warning of possibility of higher signals, before people head to bed - especially for places in western Hong Kong [I'm on Cheung Chau; looking at those radar bands around north and east of the eye...] | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
Might also consider warning re storm surge Already a metre or so for stations - on quick check of Waglan, Quarry Bay and Cheung Chau http://www.hko.gov.hk/tide/marine/hko_qb.htm - with Quarry Bay showing a sharp uptick in last few mins, tho may not be a trend. | ||
| wytang Registered: 05-2008 |
I monitored the radar continuously and found that for the past 3 hrs, Vicente move NNW instead of the NW mentioned by HKO. However, HKO is very confident about changing the course to WNW. I am afraid if the Westward component does not start in a few hours time, the landing position will be near Macau or PRD instead of West Guangdong. | ||
| Sam Lau Registered: 03-2007 |
Re Martin: I don't think there is a need for storm surge warning yet, we are still about 0.5m down from the warning line of 3m given the height of tonight's astronomical surge. Unless the strength of Vincente continue to surge, otherwise it could be saved. Re wytang: There will still be time for HKO, given the current track, but it will be more likely than not that Vincente will enter the 100 km mark unless a sharp westward turn is seen, and that will satisfy the requirement of "Direct hit" of HKO of they need a cause. | ||
| Eric Li Registered: 06-2009 |
The Observatory has just announced that a higher signal is possible as the storm is approaching Hong Kong. I would now even more concerned about the people who are still on the street for the personal safety. As Hong Kong people has not experienced such strength for a long time! | ||
| Tong Registered: 03-2007 |
The TC warning report for 9pm had not issued at 8:57pm. Just wondering if there's any special there. Based on the radar image of 8:48pm, seems to me that Vincente is still a bit east of the south line of Hong Kong. Wind direction of Waglan may might us to predict its location. Just heard from ATV news that HKO may need to consider an issuing of a higher signal. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
120~130 km just east of due S of HK now, and still moving more or less on the same track. CPA will now be much closer than "150 km", and even if it veer NW or WNW now. | ||
| Jim Registered: 03-2007 |
I still don't feel No.9 is necessary unless there is a good chance that hurricane force winds will affect some areas, say the southern part, of Hong Kong. | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
Indeed the HKO Officer just reported on TV 5 minutes ago to pave the way that higher signals are possible, if Vicente maintains its NWerly track and the TC will swipe by 100km to the SW of HK. A slight "jog" to the north before midnight will bring the intense convective rainbands to southern HK. HKO officer has not discounted the fact that Vicente will move towards and make landfall just to the west of PRD. Even chance of no. 10 cannot be ruled out. | ||
| Isaac Registered: 03-2007 |
The prediction from HKO's model came true. A few days ago, HKO's weather model consistently predicted that the storm will stall SE of HK and then move NNW towards PRD. Well done HKO model! | ||
| Isaac Registered: 03-2007 |
Jim, if hurricane force wind affects southern part of HK, then no.10 should be issued. No. 9 is "unoffically" for force 10-11 winds (or a possibility of it happening). | ||
| Jeff Hui Registered: 03-2007 |
Jim, since 2000s, signal 9 is not necessarily mean hurricane force wind is expected. It can be use to signify signifcant increase of wind in HK. | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
Finally is exactly S of HK. Let's see if is a jog or the start of a permanent more westerly track. We will see in the coming hour for sure ! | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
Sam: you rather suggest waiting till storm surge is imminent or happening before warning of possibility. It's already 9pm; people will be heading to bed pretty soon. Best to give some warning, so aware of the possibility. Hagupit brought major surge along sw Hong Kong - notably Tai O, but also I saw impacts along south coast of Lantau, and southern Cheung Chau. It was a mighty storm, yet passed so far away that we had relatively little wind. Vicente has this amazing structure on radar; somewhat like Hagupit as I recall, but with raging winds here already, and increasing; coming closer, and the tide is rising. Doesn't mean there's need for leaping about screaming, but might let people know a surge could occur. | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
Number 9" "Gale or storm force wind is increasing or expected to increase significantly in strength." seems about right for here on Cheung Chau, at least [and some other places...] | ||
| mp9_sit Registered: 03-2007 |
I'm think HKO will issue the Number 9 when Green Island have the hurricane force wind (121KM/H) Now it is 92KM/H in last 10 minutes. However I just think it would be happen when the Vicente is more closer to Hong Kong | ||
| Jim Registered: 03-2007 |
While Vicente has slowed down in the past half hour again as judged both from the radar image and the IR-image, a clear eye appeared in the IR-image indicating the further its further strengthening. Let see what come next. | ||
| t.s. kompasu Registered: 03-2007 |
This is rather interesting a move from HKO, showing Ngong Ping, Waglan Island and Tate's Cairn winds for the 10 pm report instead of Sai Kung, Cheung Chau and Chek Lap Kok... I wonder if that's a good way to show 'increasing winds' with different stations?! | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
t.s. kompasu: whatever the reasoning, I do agree with HKO this time, if they need those to make the case for the public. Vicente is convectively extremely active. A strong and long band would have the power to bring widespread hurricane force winds in entire HK, increasing signal would be justified then. Let's see how it turns out, almost stopped now and still intensifying, clouds tops surrounding the eye keeps cooling ! | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
The "big" eye is now completely visible in the 128km HKO radar with a diameter as large as HK, a fully developed typhoon indeed. It appears that HKO is endeavouring to lay the groundwork for issuance of No. 9. | ||
| Rabbit Registered: 03-2007 |
Somehow, we can use HKO 128km radar to track the center now, a rare event. It seems still keeping a NW track, so everything can happen! | ||
| bryantenglishHK Registered: 07-2012 |
(Message edited by admin on July 29, 2012) | ||
| bryantenglishHK Registered: 07-2012 |
(Message edited by admin on July 29, 2012) | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
CIMSS Raw T 6.3 !!!!!!!!! Equal to about 125 kts !! On satellite is incredibly powerful now ! http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html | ||
| momoko Registered: 06-2009 |
bryantenglishHK: Please note that 12pm by convention refers noon while 12 am refers to midnight. | ||
| bryantenglishHK Registered: 07-2012 |
@momoko....thank you! Sometimes my keyboard makes silly mistakes ;-) | ||
| Eric Li Registered: 06-2009 |
It is really incredible to see a beautiful storm approaching so near to us from the satellite. My home place at tin shui wai is experiencing non stop wind flowing like whistle starting from 10pm. Rain has pouring down more heavily. This is unseen for quite a few years. Even the TV signal has temporarily stopped for 15 minutes and electricity is unsettled for a few seconds. They haven't appeared before so far! Vicente, you are really amazing! | ||
| william2506 Registered: 06-2009 |
By interpolation, it will be a direct hit to Macau. By now, there is still no sign from SMG announcing the issuing of high Typhoon signal. | ||
| tony_yau Registered: 06-2009 |
Simone: Dvorak Technique would not be a method of choice in evaluating the actual strength of 09W now. By manipulating the radar image, HKO can have a more reliable estimation of the actual strength. It has been mentioned in the technical note. Nonetheless 09W has strengthen judging from HKO radar image, a nice and uniform yellow echo well surrounding the eye. | ||
| Joe Jim Registered: 04-2007 |
Notice that Star Ferry record 80km /hr in 10-mins wind. It is justified for Signal No.9 | ||
| Simone Lussardi Registered: 03-2007 |
Tony Yau: recently I have been following CIMSS very closely. Their ADT technique is becoming more and more accurate, and often it anticipate a change in official Dvorak agencies. It is worth to mention (3 years ago it was just a joke !). | ||
| momoko Registered: 06-2009 |
tony_yau: As far as I know, no one has developed a reliable method to assess the strength of a tropical cyclone from radar appearance. There is a limited number of cases for validation. That's why we rely heavily on Dvorak Technique. This technique has been validated by hundreds of tropical cyclones. Of course, surface observation and ship observation will play a role if they are available. | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
Just made brief visit to beach on Cheung Chau; I've seen waves here w storms, but these looked to me scarier than others I recall [being dark, and with storm force winds blasting rain made for more alarming tho!] Here's one of the waves; reaching above normal tideline. Picture seas worse than this, tides higher around HK, and winds swinging more to south... \image | ||
| Martin Williams Registered: 05-2008 |
oops! or try here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151273899773082&set=a.59030568081.85149.645998081&type=1&theater | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
If HKO does not issue No. 9 in the next 1-2 hours, we may NOT have a No. 9 at all in light of the fact that Vicente has drifted more WNW/NW in the past hour. CPA will happen shortly after midnight at 100-120km. In the upper levels of Happy Valley here, winds and rain maintained in the past hour. Once the winds swirled to the SE, I will get much more exposed to the gales. | ||
| Jim Registered: 03-2007 |
The 10-min average wind at Cheung Chau now reaches the range of 110 km/h, a very important reference for the issuance of No.9 signal. | ||
| bryantenglishHK Registered: 07-2012 |
(Message edited by admin on July 29, 2012) | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
HKO officer just mentioned that they will "closely monitor" the situation and see if "even higher signal will be issued". However, Ngong Ping gusted to 189km/hr and Star Ferry has sustained 10-min average of 63km/hr. | ||
| bryantenglishHK Registered: 07-2012 |
(Message edited by admin on July 29, 2012) | ||
| Low Registered: 09-2008 |
Hurricane force wind radii only 30nm, seems it is not possible for #10 to be justify unless shipping warning is not correct! | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
To clarify, "even higher signal" means No. 10 in the above. Will this become a No. 10 since York in 1999? Vicente has the potential to strengthen further before landfall. We are all looking at whether a slight northward jog will bring the intensive rainbands in its NE quadrant within range of HK. | ||
| momoko Registered: 06-2009 |
As Vicente gained a westerly component in last couple of hours, I thought HKO would refrain from issuing Signal No.9. In the end, Signal No.9 was still issued. Unless Vicente turns more northerly again, I think this should be the highest signal. | ||
| Xavier Fung Registered: 06-2009 |
Simone may be very happy to hear this: Latest TPPN gives a T value of 6.5, and raw T# gives out 6.6. It appears that it is still strengthening, and CMA has upgraded it to a 40m/s storm. Cheung Chau seems likely to experience hurricane force wind in the next few hours, so issuing a higher signal is still possible. | ||
| Jackychan2680 Registered: 03-2007 |
It is still intensifying rapid in the last 6 hrs, see ADT by CIMSS ,Raw T is now 6.6 , and CI 5.5 ,Vmax 102kts. I think , if it keep moving nw , as Hurricane force wind radii may enlarge , 10's chance isn't low. | ||
| Sam Lau Registered: 03-2007 |
the case is interesting with CCH and CCB both edge close to the high end of F11. With Vicente still not yet at CPA with HK, HKO has room to see if F12 is observed, that will be the only deciding factor for whether a signal 10 needed. | ||
| Albert Zeng Registered: 03-2011 |
I heard that 8 fireman looking for 1 person drowned near Tsing Ma Bridge. Most likely first casualty. No news report yet. | ||
| Eric Li Registered: 06-2009 |
A powerful storm which we do not foresee in the past few days to have such strength. We cant imagine the storm would still intensify that significantly today. For the chance of No.10, it cannot be opt out as the wind speed of stations such as Cheung Chau are still increasing. If the sustained wind would reach hurricane force with the typhoon would still have chance to intensify, that the chance of a No.10 signal could still be here. | ||
| Jeff Hui Registered: 03-2007 |
(Message edited by admin on July 29, 2012) | ||
| momoko Registered: 06-2009 |
HKO has just upgraded Vicente to a severe typhoon. I think this is a good response given the high Dvorak T number. | ||
| Forum Administrator Registered: 03-2007 |
Please proceed to Part 2. Thank you. |